Can the "frozen rise" of wafer foundry indicate a turning point in the chip market?

Date：2022-04-25 14:26:59Views：770

Just entering the second quarter,Mature process wafer foundry exposedThe price increase was stopped because of the large panel driveIC (DDI), driver and touch integration chip (tddi) and non Apple mobile phone power management chip (PMIC) have increased inventory and weakened demand in the electronic supply chain.

Wafer foundryDoes "frozen rise" mean a turning point in the chip market? At present, the market of consumer "peripheral chips" has indeed shaken, but m in automotive and industrial controlCu and simulator parts are still strong。 As for all links of the industrial chain, the current upstream links such as wafer foundry are still strong, while the downstream ones are weakIC. start of design industryfeelpressure。

“Frozen inflation”It doesn't mean to reduce the price, and the foundry cost of wafers is still high

Wafer foundry experienced quarterly price increases last year，It has reached an all-time high，At present, although"Frozen rise", but it is impossible to return to the level before the core shortage tide. IWhen the design Plant C plans the production capacity this year，They all signed long-term contracts with the agent factory to guarantee the quantity but not the price, even the downstream demand warning is not allowedIC design plant cut order，Otherwise, it's not just compensationupperDeposit，Production capacity will also be handed over，LaterThinkThere's no chance to jump the queue.

From the perspective of wafer foundry, with full capacity and a long-term contract in hand, we can ignore the risk of reducing consumer electronics demand in the medium and short term. Previously, Wei Zhejia, President of TSMC, stressed at the meeting that TSMC still holds the leading power in the industry and will not cut prices even in the face of the reversal of industry prosperity. Liandian, the world's advanced and other professional and mature process agent factories have also said that they do not worry about the demand this year, and customers have signed long-term contracts.

Demand situationChange at any time,"Long and short materials" is still the main tone

Consumer electronicsDecline in demandVery sure. In the mobile phone market,According to the data of ICT Institute, domestic1-Mobile phone sales decreased year-on-year in February30%; According to canyls statistics, global mobile phone shipments fell by 1% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year1%。 PC. Market，Gartner、IDCandCanyls three major data institutions made statistics in the same period, and the global first quarter was PC. year on year decrease in shipmentsThe specific range was recorded separately due to the different statistical caliber of each institution5% to 1%0%aboveThe decline in.

Sluggish demandTrigger terminal manufacturersDeal with cutting ordersAt present, apple and domestic android manufacturers in mobile phones,PC Lenovo in the industry、Brands such as HP and ASUS began to cut pricesOrder quantity. The lower demand was reflected in the upstream, which led to the price reduction of MediaTek and Qualcomm5GProcessor, simultaneouslyDDI、Tddi andpartPThe demand for supporting chips such as MIC is also increasinghavereduce。

If we just look at consumer electronics，It does reflect sluggish demand，But don't forget to use it in cars、Industrial control and other fieldsMCu and many analog chips are still out of stock and rising in price。 current"Long and short materials"It is still the main tone of the supply chain，JustVariousMaterialThe difference between "length" and "length" has changed.

For example, the price of out of stock increased last yearDDi withConsumer electronicsWeak demand for products, nowBecome no longer out of stock，butST、NXP and other brandsMCU，TBrand IPMIC，as well asAAnalog chips of DI and other brands are still out of stock, stable"Short material" pole.

On the whole, all kinds ofThe supply of chips is changing all the timeIn terms of change, lack or lack depends on the increase or decrease of demand,But for the demand itself，IC trading network learned that OEM andcapital marketTheir views are divided，This has led both sides to the prospect of the chip industryhave toMake the opposite judgment。

Industrial chain pressurestatusWafer foundry boundary

becauseDDIThe inventory of chips in the industrial chain is high, and market analysts such as financial institutions believe that this is an intuitive manifestation of reduced demand, and the performance prospect of wafer foundry is not affirmed. In terms of share price, TSMCLiandian Co., LtdsinceIt has been in a downward trend since the beginning of the year, in sharp contrast to their quarterly rise in revenue and profits.

【TSMC、Stock price trend of wafer foundry such as liandian this yearData source: Oriental FortuneHiStock】

After a year of high performance, in the first quarter of this year, the performance of TSMC, liandian and the world's three advanced generation factories reached a new high. At present, the three factories are very optimistic about their performance prospects. For the rise of chip inventory in the industrial chain, the OEM is interpreted as strong demand. Under the uncertainty of geography and epidemic situation, the industrial chain needs to pile up the chip inventory in order to survive safely. Therefore, the chip demand will not decline.

But forIC design plant, the pressure is obvious.Previous OEM prices were high，Later, the demand for consumer goods decreased，Under "double side attack", IC design industryIt must be goodbye"Comfort zone".Now it's better than Qualcomm、MediaTek has started a price war，For more two、Third lineIC design plant，The situation is even more self-evident。 But fortunately, last year, the lack of core was booming, and many peopleIC DesignFactory take thisIt has benefited a lot，PresentriskShould only lead to lower profits, it is not yet possible to turn profit into loss.

On the whole, the hidden demand worries are turned into reality, and the upstream links of the industrial chain such as chip equipment factory and wafer foundry can still be isolated from risks, but relatively lowerIC design and terminal manufacturingalreadyFace the challenge。 As for the overall prospect of the chip industry, it depends on whether the current decline in demand is temporary or trend. In this way, the demand in the second quarter will become an important guide to the prospect of the chip industry.