The problem of "long and short materials" is too prominent. When will the chip market dawn?

Date：2021-11-26 13:50:00Views：1029

The spring tide of core deficiency that lasted for a year is still continuing，But it is not static。Over time, the shortage of various chips has gradually differentiated. Until now,The market has developed from general shortage toThe pattern of "long and short materials". In other words, some materials are no longer in short supply, and some are still in short supply.

The resumption of supply of some materials is certainly better than total shortage. However, for the terminal, the incomplete materials still cannot be fully put into production. On the contrary, the accumulation of long materials will pose a new threat to it. In short, the difficulty of core shortage has not passed, and full survival is still the primary problem.

To solve the problem of long and short materials, we should expect the supplier to expand production

Speaking of the problem of long and short materialsOrigin,First of allYes,Various components due to market size、technological process、Differences in supply chain and other aspects，The delivery date is already thereDifference. Under normal market conditions, terminals prepare goods in an orderly manner according to the delivery date of various materials, and store as little as possible without stopping production"Dull material".

But now the situation is，The stock of many materials is sufficient, but some"Short material" is always lacking, which delays the production process of the terminal. To what extent is the problem of long and short materials? With global importance pC brand HP as an example, statistics show that the factorythis yearSecond quarterThe inventory level of components is as high as8$200 million，ChuangJinFive quarter high. In addition, apple is in 1From Broadcom in October、TI's key materials are out of stock，causeIPhone production reduction，Extension of delivery period。

As big as HP、Apples are also affected by long and short materials，For the majority of small and medium-sized terminals，The situation is even more self-evident。Influence of long and short materialswhenCan dissipate？In the short term, the off-season in the first quarter of next year can be partially alleviated. During the Spring Festival, most of the terminal production stopped and the demand for components came to a low level, which is conducive to alleviating the impact of the problem of long and short materials.

But also note，Wafer foundry prices continue to rise, foreshadowingOverall cost pressureIncrease,It also indicates that the market is still in short supply，Therefore, the off-season can not make the shortagefromFundamental easing。 Only all generation factories andIDM plant expansion in place，To completely reverse the pattern of supply and demand。 According to the production expansion schedule of each plant,2022至2023 is the time point for large-scale opening of new production capacity, this round of core loss tideIt should come to an end then。Can expectAt that time, the market of most materials will also return to rationality.

Difference between long and short materials，Wafer foundry to divide

Current long and short materials are bothfingerWhich?？ It can be observed that passive components that do not rely on wafer OEMDRam, memory and other materials are no longer in short supply as a whole，From wafer foundryMCU、Power SupplyIClass C is still in short supply。 The component industry has developed so far, even if it has its own production lineIDM also needs wafer foundry，even to the extent thatIDM's own production line often onlyhave40 nm level，To produce28nm products mustwantFind a wafer foundry。

For a long time, Samsung and TSMC, which are at the head of the wafer generation industry, have continued to fight for advanced processes, and their investment in mature processes is seriously insufficient. Because of the low profits of mature process chips, second-line generation factories such as liandian and grofangde do not have the motivation and ability to expand production on a large scale. In fact, as early as before the start of this round of core shortage tide, the production capacity of mature processes was relatively low, and the hidden danger of serious shortage already existed.

After the epidemic peak in the second half of last year, the electronics industry suddenly warmed up, and the demand for all kinds of mature process chips broke out. Unfortunately, after entering this year, local epidemics, meteorological disasters and other factors frequently disturbed the supply chain, resulting in the continuous expansion of the supply and demand gap. Therefore, the OEM of finished chips and wafers has the basis for long-term and substantial price increases.

The specific forms of price increase are mainly OEM and chipOriginal factoryconductIndependent price adjustmentHowever, there is no lack of downstream panic stock and speculation in the spot market. Due to the superposition of multiple factors, the gap between supply and demand has been widened, and the efficiency of market allocation of material resources has been reduced, resulting in a serious shortage and price rise. In contrast, the passive components that do not follow the line of wafer OEMDRAMThe supply is relatively smooth,the formerPrices rose only in the first half of the yearIn this yearSeptember turned from up to down, in sharp contrast to wafer foundry materials.

Abnormal market，Terminal faces complex trade-offs

Under the long-term and short-term situation，Terminals face complex trade-offs。 Long materials alone cannot be produced, but the cost of short materials is too high. Even if the terminal spends a high price to feed and put into operation, its income may not be enough to cover the cost. However, if we do not feed production, on the one hand, we will miss the peak season, and on the other hand, long material accumulation is also a burden.

In a dilemma，terminalAlsoTry your best to maintain。 Some terminalsIf you happen to have some high-value materials in your hand，Will choose to throw it to the market，To maintain cash flow。 Even in many cases, direct throwing is even more profitable than scraping production, which fully reflects the abnormal situation of the market. For the whole electronic industry chain, a large number of materials flow frequently in the market and cannot be used on products, which is a huge waste.

How will the market develop? First of all, we should realize that the chip is a cyclical industry. When the production expansion of each factory is in place, the market will eventually return to balance. It is worth noting that the outbreak of the epidemic, coupled with the outbreak of new demand for new energy vehicles, is bound to bring profound changes to the industry. For example, the epidemic may make terminals pay more attention to safety inventory, and the rise of new energy vehicles may also make chip suppliers pay more attention to the revenue of mature processes. Whether these changes can become a reality remains to be seen by all parties in the industrial chain.