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The problem of "long and short materials" is too prominent. When will the chip market dawn?

Date:2021-11-26 13:50:00Views:1029

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The spring tide of core deficiency that lasted for a year is still continuingBut it is not staticOver time, the shortage of various chips has gradually differentiated. Until now,The market has developed from general shortage toThe pattern of "long and short materials". In other words, some materials are no longer in short supply, and some are still in short supply.

The resumption of supply of some materials is certainly better than total shortage. However, for the terminal, the incomplete materials still cannot be fully put into production. On the contrary, the accumulation of long materials will pose a new threat to it. In short, the difficulty of core shortage has not passed, and full survival is still the primary problem.

To solve the problem of long and short materials, we should expect the supplier to expand production

Speaking of the problem of long and short materialsOrigin,First of allYes,Various components due to market sizetechnological processDifferences in supply chain and other aspectsThe delivery date is already thereDifference. Under normal market conditions, terminals prepare goods in an orderly manner according to the delivery date of various materials, and store as little as possible without stopping production"Dull material".

But now the situation isThe stock of many materials is sufficient, but some"Short material" is always lacking, which delays the production process of the terminal. To what extent is the problem of long and short materials? With global importance pC brand HP as an example, statistics show that the factorythis yearSecond quarterThe inventory level of components is as high as8$200 millionChuangJinFive quarter high. In addition, apple is in 1From Broadcom in OctoberTI's key materials are out of stockcauseIPhone production reductionExtension of delivery period

As big as HPApples are also affected by long and short materialsFor the majority of small and medium-sized terminalsThe situation is even more self-evidentInfluence of long and short materialswhenCan dissipateIn the short term, the off-season in the first quarter of next year can be partially alleviated. During the Spring Festival, most of the terminal production stopped and the demand for components came to a low level, which is conducive to alleviating the impact of the problem of long and short materials.

But also noteWafer foundry prices continue to rise, foreshadowingOverall cost pressureIncrease,It also indicates that the market is still in short supplyTherefore, the off-season can not make the shortagefromFundamental easing。 Only all generation factories andIDM plant expansion in placeTo completely reverse the pattern of supply and demand。 According to the production expansion schedule of each plant,2022至2023 is the time point for large-scale opening of new production capacity, this round of core loss tideIt should come to an end thenCan expectAt that time, the market of most materials will also return to rationality.

Difference between long and short materialsWafer foundry to divide

Current long and short materials are bothfingerWhich?? It can be observed that passive components that do not rely on wafer OEMDRam, memory and other materials are no longer in short supply as a wholeFrom wafer foundryMCUPower SupplyIClass C is still in short supply。 The component industry has developed so far, even if it has its own production lineIDM also needs wafer foundryeven to the extent thatIDM's own production line often onlyhave40 nm levelTo produce28nm products mustwantFind a wafer foundry

For a long time, Samsung and TSMC, which are at the head of the wafer generation industry, have continued to fight for advanced processes, and their investment in mature processes is seriously insufficient. Because of the low profits of mature process chips, second-line generation factories such as liandian and grofangde do not have the motivation and ability to expand production on a large scale. In fact, as early as before the start of this round of core shortage tide, the production capacity of mature processes was relatively low, and the hidden danger of serious shortage already existed.

After the epidemic peak in the second half of last year, the electronics industry suddenly warmed up, and the demand for all kinds of mature process chips broke out. Unfortunately, after entering this year, local epidemics, meteorological disasters and other factors frequently disturbed the supply chain, resulting in the continuous expansion of the supply and demand gap. Therefore, the OEM of finished chips and wafers has the basis for long-term and substantial price increases.

The specific forms of price increase are mainly OEM and chipOriginal factoryconductIndependent price adjustmentHowever, there is no lack of downstream panic stock and speculation in the spot market. Due to the superposition of multiple factors, the gap between supply and demand has been widened, and the efficiency of market allocation of material resources has been reduced, resulting in a serious shortage and price rise. In contrast, the passive components that do not follow the line of wafer OEMDRAMThe supply is relatively smooth,the formerPrices rose only in the first half of the yearIn this yearSeptember turned from up to down, in sharp contrast to wafer foundry materials.

Abnormal marketTerminal faces complex trade-offs

Under the long-term and short-term situationTerminals face complex trade-offs。 Long materials alone cannot be produced, but the cost of short materials is too high. Even if the terminal spends a high price to feed and put into operation, its income may not be enough to cover the cost. However, if we do not feed production, on the one hand, we will miss the peak season, and on the other hand, long material accumulation is also a burden.

In a dilemmaterminalAlsoTry your best to maintain。 Some terminalsIf you happen to have some high-value materials in your handWill choose to throw it to the marketTo maintain cash flow。 Even in many cases, direct throwing is even more profitable than scraping production, which fully reflects the abnormal situation of the market. For the whole electronic industry chain, a large number of materials flow frequently in the market and cannot be used on products, which is a huge waste.

How will the market develop? First of all, we should realize that the chip is a cyclical industry. When the production expansion of each factory is in place, the market will eventually return to balance. It is worth noting that the outbreak of the epidemic, coupled with the outbreak of new demand for new energy vehicles, is bound to bring profound changes to the industry. For example, the epidemic may make terminals pay more attention to safety inventory, and the rise of new energy vehicles may also make chip suppliers pay more attention to the revenue of mature processes. Whether these changes can become a reality remains to be seen by all parties in the industrial chain.


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