June core information review: 2021 halfway, the market turning point began to appear

Date：2021-07-09 15:50:00Views：2857

In a twinkling of an eyeJune has passed, and it will be halfway through 2021. In the first half of the year, due to the shortage of supply in the IC market, coupled with unexpected factors such as climate and epidemic situation, the shortage and price rise became more and more intense. Whether these adverse factors can be eliminated in the second half of the year will determine whether the market will reverse or not. The supply chain event in June will guide the market in the second half of the year, so it is necessary to sort it out.

List of price adjustment sent by the original factory in June

First of all, pay attention to the price adjustment sent by the original factory.In June, as before, there were still many original factories with price increases, including logic IC, passive components and other products. Among the many price increases, the centralized price increase of power devices in June is particularly noteworthy. Major original manufacturers such as Infineon, Anson semiconductor and domestic BYD have taken action, which will have an impact on downstream industries such as automobiles.

ST：The latest round of price increasesIt came into effect on June 1, and the price of all products was increased.

Guoju:The latest round of price increasesEffective June 1, the price of new resistors and tantalum capacitors increased by an average of 10%.

Schlumberger:The latest round of price increasesEffective June 1, the price of ED lighting driven products increased.

Toshiba:The price of its semiconductor products began to rise on June 1.

ANSYS semiconductor:The new price will be implemented from June 7, involving power semiconductor products.

BYD semiconductor:Announce fromThe price increase of IPM and IGBT shall not be less than 5% from July 1.

Infineon:Market rumors will rise in the near futureThe selling price of MOSFET increased by about 12%.

In addition to the above, there are also rumors in the marketLianyong, shengqun, new Tang DynastyAnd other Taiwan factories began to raise prices in the third quarter, involvingTddi, lddi, MCU and other products.

Overall,There are still many large factories that started the price increase in June, which shows that the shortage and price increase of chips have not stopped, and will certainly continue in the second half of the year. However, at the same time, the IC market has also changed, some production lines that were suspended in the first half of the year have been restored, and the whole industrial chain is planning to expand production. With the cyclical characteristics of the IC industry, the expansion of production by each plant will eventually cover the gap between supply and demand and bring it back to balance. However, the turnaround of the industry cycle should be based on years and will not be completed in a short time. Therefore, people in the circle should consider the long term and be prepared.

When expanding production, the market turning point can be expected

As early asIn March, a fire broke out in building N3 of Renesas Japan's nake factory, resulting in the shutdown of the production line. The factory mainly produces vehicle MCU, and its shutdown has a certain impact on the automotive industry. In June, Renesas announced that the plant could fully recover before the end of the month, which is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the automotive IC market.

During the gradual recovery period of Renesas factory, TSMC, a wafer foundry, promised to increase the production capacity of automobile chips. The original orders that Renesas planned to withdraw and produce by itself will remain in TSMC. Besides Reza,IDM manufacturers such as NXP and St have also strengthened cooperation with TSMC. The forecast shows that the MCU capacity of TSMC will increase by 60% this year compared with last year. It is expected that a large number of new capacity will be opened in the second half of the year, and the shortage of automotive chips is expected to be initially alleviated.

At this stage, the wafer equipment limited by market circulation is limited, especiallyThere is no growth in 8-inch equipment, and IDM manufacturers are weak in expanding production, so they must strive for OEM capacity to meet downstream demand. Under such fundamentals, the price of wafer foundry and downstream packaging and testing will inevitably rise due to the shortage of production capacity.

According to the media, the prices of Tailian power, Liji power and even SMIC and other OEM factories also increased by as much as in the third quarter30%。 At present, if the original IC manufacturers want to ship more, they must accept the OEM price increase. In contrast, the cost of expanding their own capacity is more controllable. In June, some new production lines of original IC factories have been put into use, and more new production capacity is on the way. If it is completed in the next two years, it should be able to promote the turning point of the shortage market.

Trends of original factories in June:

Bosch:A new plant in Dresden, Germany, will be built inProduction of automotive chips began in September。

ANSYS semiconductor:Manchester, UKThe 8-inch production line was started and new MOSFET products were put into operation.

STMicroelectronics:AndTower semiconductor has jointly built a 12 inch plant in Italy, which is expected to be put into operation in 2022.

Yangjie Technology:Phase I of integrated circuit and power semiconductor packaging test project was put into operation.

Solar induced electricity:Announced constructionThe new MLCC material factory, whose specific product is barium titanate, is expected to start in September this year and complete in December next year.

Changdian technology completed the acquisitionADI Singapore plant:Changdian TechnologyOn June 1, it was announced that the acquisition of ADI Singapore test plant was officially completed.

Zhaoyi innovation releases its own brand memory:On June 3, Zhaoyi innovation announced that its own brand 4GB DDR4 product gdq2bfaa series has achieved mass production, which is mainly used in the fields of set-top box, TV, car audio and video, etc.

TSMC plans to set up a plant in Japan:In mid June, it was reported that TSMC planned to set up a chip factory in Japan and introduce 28nm and 16nm processes for the production of CIS, automobile MCU, etc.

Wang Hong6-inch factory determined to sell:In mid June, wanghong, a Taiwanese storage manufacturer, sold its 6-inch factory to Tokyo Weili, a Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturer, and the equipment was sold to Jinshajiang group in the mainland.

Sk Hynix acquires 8-inch Foundry:In late June, it was reported that SK Hynix would acquire key foundry, an 8-inch wafer foundry, to expand its foundry capacity.

From the action of the original factory，amongwithPower semiconductors and storageMost of them just echo the most serious areas of price rise. It is expected that the shortage of car cores will be greatly alleviated after these production capacities are opened. According to Ye Shengji, chief engineer and Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Association, the shortage of car cores reached the peak in the second quarter. It is optimistic that the supply interruption of car cores will begin to ease in the second half of the year and is expected to resume normal supply in the middle of next year. After the supply of car core is restored, other industriesIC supply will also return to normal by the end of next year.

As for industry research institutions, chip foundries and end product manufacturers, it is generally believed that the time point for the end of the chip shortage is2022 to 2023. At that time, the impact of the epidemic will subside, new production capacity will be opened, and market demand will no longer rise sharply, which are the basis for judgment. However, this year's market is still in the price rise cycle, and the epidemic has invaded important areas of the IC industry, and the impact will continue. In June, Taiwan and Malaysia were deeply affected by the epidemic, resulting in a certain loss of production capacity.

TaiwanThe biggest loss among IC enterprises was Jingyuan power, a sealed test plant. The concentrated epidemic caused the plant to lose 20% - 35% of its production capacity in June. As for Malaysia, it was always under the epidemic control order in June. The local passive component production line implemented low manpower operation, and the production capacity could only be maintained at about 60%; Although the chip manufacturing production line has a high degree of automation, it also has to bear a certain capacity loss. Infineon MOSFET products have lost about 2-3 weeks of capacity, thus brewing a price increase, which has been mentioned above.

According to the trend of the original factory and the epidemic situation, the shortage and price rise will continue in the second half of the year, and the peak season will come soon, so I'm afraid the gap between supply and demand will intensify in the short term. However, at present, most industry institutions and practitioners begin to talk about the inflection point. With the opening of new production capacity in the next two years, the gap between supply and demand will be gradually closed, and the shortage and price rise will eventually pass.