Mobile phone manufacturers began to cut orders. Should the IC market be reversed?

Date：2021-05-28 16:44:00Views：1215

In recent days, some supply chain information pointed out that mobile phone manufacturers have begun to cut orders for peripheral components, and the driving force of pulling goods in this quarter has decreased by 10-30% compared with the first quarterIC "bears the brunt". Since the second half of last year, the IC market can be said to be lacking and rising. Does the cut-off of mobile phone manufacturers mean that the IC market has "boomed and declined"? This problem is worth exploring.

Mobile phone demand drops, manufacturers cut orders to deal with it

Mobile phone manufacturers cut orders due to the decline in demand, which can be seen from some data and phenomena. According to the data of China Academy of information and communications, this yearIn April, the overall shipment of domestic mobile phones was 27.486 million, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% and a month on month decrease of 23.9%. The rapid braking of mobile phone shipments indicates a decline in domestic market demand. Of course, whether there is a trend or not depends on the data in the next few months, but no matter how, the data in April is obviously lower than expected, which needs to be vigilant enough.

this yearData source of mobile phone shipment in April: ICT Institute

As for India, the world's second-largest mobile phone market,Since April, the rebound of the epidemic has seriously affected the local order, the demand for mobile phones is also decreasing, and the market situation is silent. On the production side, Foxconn and Wistron's factories in India have been infiltrated by the epidemic, and the production and shipment have been affected. When both production and marketing are in trouble, it is an inevitable choice for mobile phone manufacturers to reduce the order quantity of OEM.

According to the information disclosure, the annual shipment target of domestic mobile phone brand zhongxiaomi is fromFrom 240 million to 190 million, glory will be cut from 50 million to 35 million. Oppo, vivo, realme, Yijia and other brands will also cut orders, with an overall order cutting rate of about 20%. These news have not been officially confirmed, but since the production and demand of mobile phones have been plagued with problems, it is reasonable for manufacturers to reduce their shipment targets.

The delivery target is lowered, and the orders for the supply chain will also decline, which leads mobile phone manufacturers to cut orders for peripheral components, including image sensors in the early stage（CIS), RF IC and other devices naturally bear the brunt. As for the scarce IC category in the early stage, mobile phone manufacturers have to continue to stock up. The problem of "long and short materials" is also a major factor affecting mobile phone shipment.

The problem of "long and short materials" is significant, which affects the rhythm of mobile phone shipment

There are many kinds of chips that make up a mobile phone, each made by different processes. In recent years, wafer foundries led by TSMC and Samsung have continued to upgrade advanced processes and adoptSOC, baseband and and other chips manufactured by 7Nm, 5nm and other processes will not be lacking. In contrast, various peripheral ICs manufactured by mature processes, especially based on 8-inch wafers, are the most scarce.

peripheryFor IC, since the second half of last year, screen driven IC has been out of stock and raised prices. In February this year, the cold wave in the United States led to the shutdown of Samsung's chip factory in Austin, Texas, which hit the supply of screen drive IC. In addition, the power management IC also manufactured based on mature technology, as well as all kinds of necessary simulator parts, are also in short supply, and the price of the original factory rises frequently.

AroundIn the case of IC shortage, it is obvious that mobile phone manufacturers can't ship only SOC and baseband. How much can be shipped depends on whether the most scarce materials are fully prepared. The problem of "long and short materials" has become an important factor restricting mobile phone manufacturers. This problem also reflects the current chaotic supply chain. Although the prosperity of the electronic industry is upward, manufacturers may not be able to produce enough products to seize the market.

Considering the situation of the mobile phone market, the epidemic affects demand and production,"Long and short materials" affect the rhythm of shipment. If the two phases are superimposed, manufacturers will naturally reserve their expectations for this year. So, does the situation of the mobile phone market apply to other electronic product markets? Whether the component market is close to the turning point is the most important issue.

IC market flip? It's too early to draw a conclusion

fromIn the IC market as a whole, the shortage price rise is still a unilateral market, which has not changed until now. Just look at this month, the original IC factory still sent a letter to adjust the price, and the chip OEM and sealing test are still shouting up. These are no different from the past.

Rough statistics, comprehensive this monthAmong IC manufacturers, St, Meixin, Ansenmei and other manufacturers announced price increases, and other IC manufacturers with special properties such as LED driver chip leader Jingfeng Mingyuan and Bluetooth chip leader Nordic are also raising prices. At present, the price increase of the original factory points to the second half of the year, so the whole year will be in the price increase cycle. In terms of chip OEM and sealing test, in the first half of the year, Tailian power, SMIC international, riyueyue and other factories all raised prices. Recently, it was reported that prices would continue to rise in the second half of the year, reflecting strong demand and short supply.

As for the demand side, the auto market is suffering"Lack of core" has plagued for nearly half a year and has not been improved so far. This month's report disclosed that Volkswagen, Toyota, Kia and other auto companies will stop production of many factories around the world. The reason for the lack of car cores is not only the contradiction between supply and demand structure and the inability of the original factory to expand production in a short time, but also related to the wrong market and failure of car enterprises to place full orders last year.

Some industry analysts pointed out that during the first wave of market last year, car manufacturers cut orders due to falling demand. Later, the epidemic eased, demand came unexpectedly, and car enterprises ordered in a hurry, resulting in order crash. In terms of the chaotic situation of the supply chain, the automobile market is similar to the mobile phone market, but the automobile uses fewer advanced process chips, mostlyMCU, simulator parts, power devices, sensors and other mature process products, the problem of "long and short materials" is not prominent, and out of stock is lack. This is the difference between cars and mobile phones.

In short, the current situation of the mobile phone market can only reflectIn one corner of the IC market, the original factory, OEM and packaging and testing factory are still shouting up, so it is difficult to turn the IC market upside down. However, the IC industry has been cyclical for a long time. The more out of stock now, the more serious the surplus may be in the future. At present, major IC manufacturers are expanding their production on a large scale. When the expanded capacity covers the demand, this round of chip market will be almost the same. Sooner or later, the market will return to a steady state, and such an extreme market will not last forever.